Is it possible Ron Paul has a 44% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses? And what if he does? What then? What if Newt Gingrich defies gravity in the face of devastating slams from opposition on both sides of the aisle?
Former President Jimmy Carter didn’t win the official Democrat Iowa caucus. George H. W. Bush defeated Ronald Reagan in the caucuses, but lost the nomination. Mike Huckabee won the 2008 Iowa Republican caucus with 34%, but lost the nomination to John McCain who received only 13%, behind Romney, but ahead of Ron Paul.
In 1988 Dick Gephardt won the vote with 31%, but lost the nomination to Michael Dukakis.
More on the Democrat side: Remember Tom Harkin? He won 76% of the Iowa caucus vote in 1992, but did not win his party’s nomination. Bill Clinton took only 3% of the Iowa Democrat vote that year, but went on to be nominated and elected.
In 2000, Al Gore won 63% of the Iowa Democrat caucus, but couldn’t make it to the White House.
Stacy McCain at The Other McCain is telling us to “chill,”(good analyzation here) and Catholic Bandita is reminding us of Rick Santorum, an enlightened anti-Romney vote.
The Other McCain:
Arguments about “viability” and “electability” tend to become self-fulfilling prophecies, especially when the entire media establishment — including Fox News — have bought into the front-runner game, wherein only the media-anointed and poll-validated “contenders” are considered newsworthy.
What is weird is how people buy into that game while asserting that they are, in fact, only being realistic, whereas those of us who don’t do the front-runner bandwagon thing — who don’t give a damn about anyone’s tautological “electability” arguments — are (at least implicitly) accused of being unrealistic dreamers. And yet now we see how the unrealistic dreamers who support Ron Paul have brought their dream to the verge of fruition, thereby inspiring nightmares in the minds of the Anybody But Romney brigades.
Most of us believe that Rick Santorum will do well in Iowa. I hope Michele Bachmann also does. In the meantime, Newt Gingrich defied gravity and won a Tea Party Patriot straw poll with thousands voting, with 31% of the vote and Bachmann close behind at 28%.
Thanks to Political Clown for the graphic.
Posted by Maggie @ Maggie’s Notebook
Hey there! This post could not be written any better! Reading this post reminds me of my old room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this page to him. Fairly certain he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!
Laurel recently posted..bed bath and beyond internet coupons
If Ron Paul won it would send the other states’ Republicans into panic, they’d probably go with Romney in desperation
It would be better if anyone else won but those two, imho
Reaganite Republican recently posted..Wackadoodle Ron’s Funkee Funnee Farm
It’s becoming clear to me that those who follow right-wing politics are woefully ignorant on what’s really going on here, thus the surprise at Ron Paul’s success. There are many independents and democrats actually switching parties to vote for Ron Paul in the closed primary states, and plan to freely vote in the Republican primary in the open states.
They’re putting aside their pro-abort issues to vote for a very pro-life candidate. I think that’s something. So you see, you’re not just dealing with regular Republicans when you talk about Ron Paul supporters.
The Establishment Republicans are the ones panicing and well they should be. They benefit from big spending as much as Democrats do. The ideas of slashing government as Dr. Paul suggests scare the fool out of them.
republican mother recently posted..Women For Ron Paul 2012
Republican Mother, I do believe people understand, and would hang onto every word Paul says, until he says we caused 9/11/01.
Maggie recently posted..Christmas Tree December 21: Sarah McLachlan O Little Town of Bethlehem
I think there is a very real chance that Ron Paul will win the Iowa caucus. Whether that will lead him to the nomination is anyone’s guess at this stage of the contest. I have to agree with Republican Mother on this. The establishment Republicans are the ones who are foaming at the mouth over the possible success of Ron Paul. They have ever reason to be frightened because he threatens the status quo that has been entrenched for many years.
LD Jackson recently posted..Boehner Faces Revolt In The House Over Payroll Tax Cut
LD, he may well win Iowa. I don’t see a problem with that, as others who won the state did not go on to become the nominee. I don’t think Paul will be the nominee simply because of his stance on terrorism. Everything else about his positions are intriguing and admirable.
Maggie recently posted..Christmas Tree December 21: Sarah McLachlan O Little Town of Bethlehem
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Newt has one advantage I can appreciate: He is very clear on the fundamental principles of Liberty, including the Second Amendment. I expect a lot of NRA support to swing Newt’s way.
Ran recently posted..Newt and the Second Amendment
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