Is it possible Ron Paul has a 44% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses? And what if he does? What then? What if Newt Gingrich defies gravity in the face of devastating slams from opposition on both sides of the aisle?
Former President Jimmy Carter didn’t win the official Democrat Iowa caucus. George H. W. Bush defeated Ronald Reagan in the caucuses, but lost the nomination. Mike Huckabee won the 2008 Iowa Republican caucus with 34%, but lost the nomination to John McCain who received only 13%, behind Romney, but ahead of Ron Paul.
In 1988 Dick Gephardt won the vote with 31%, but lost the nomination to Michael Dukakis.
More on the Democrat side: Remember Tom Harkin? He won 76% of the Iowa caucus vote in 1992, but did not win his party’s nomination. Bill Clinton took only 3% of the Iowa Democrat vote that year, but went on to be nominated and elected.
In 2000, Al Gore won 63% of the Iowa Democrat caucus, but couldn’t make it to the White House.
Stacy McCain at The Other McCain is telling us to “chill,”(good analyzation here) and Catholic Bandita is reminding us of Rick Santorum, an enlightened anti-Romney vote.
The Other McCain:
Arguments about “viability” and “electability” tend to become self-fulfilling prophecies, especially when the entire media establishment — including Fox News — have bought into the front-runner game, wherein only the media-anointed and poll-validated “contenders” are considered newsworthy.
What is weird is how people buy into that game while asserting that they are, in fact, only being realistic, whereas those of us who don’t do the front-runner bandwagon thing — who don’t give a damn about anyone’s tautological “electability” arguments — are (at least implicitly) accused of being unrealistic dreamers. And yet now we see how the unrealistic dreamers who support Ron Paul have brought their dream to the verge of fruition, thereby inspiring nightmares in the minds of the Anybody But Romney brigades.
Most of us believe that Rick Santorum will do well in Iowa. I hope Michele Bachmann also does. In the meantime, Newt Gingrich defied gravity and won a Tea Party Patriot straw poll with thousands voting, with 31% of the vote and Bachmann close behind at 28%.